PredictIt is a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The market was launched on November 3, 2014. PredictIt's office is located in Washington, D.C.

How it works

PredictIt uses a continuous double auction to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an event will take place, there must be another person who predicts that it will not. The site groups related predictions into a market.

Rules and limits

Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reducing the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling. In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there's an $850 cap on individual investments per question. These restrictions are modelled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; however, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets. Federal approval aside, the site isn't allowing participation from residents in 2 states with particularly strict laws on gaming and gambling: Nevada and Washington.

Research

PredictIt offers a Research Data Sharing programme for professors. PredictIt has over 50 university partnerships. Some universities include Harvard University, Yale University, and University of Pennsylvania.

  • Intrade
  • iPredict – a New Zealand prediction market additionally run by Victoria University of Wellington